The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends     

Eugene C. Cordero  Wittaya Kessomkiat  John Abatzoglou  Steven A. Mauget 《Climatic change》2011,108(1-2):357-382

Regional changes in California surface temperatures over the last 80 years are analyzed using station data from the US Historical Climate Network and the National Weather Service Cooperative Network. Statistical analyses using annual and seasonal temperature data over the last 80 years show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns in trends of maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to trends of minimum temperature (Tmin). For trends computed between 1918 and 2006, the rate of warming in Tmin is greater than that of Tmax. Trends computed since 1970 show an amplified warming rate compared to trends computed from 1918, and the rate of warming is comparable between Tmin and Tmax. This is especially true in the southern deserts, where warming trends during spring (March?CMay) are exceptionally large. While observations show coherent statewide positive trends in Tmin, trends in Tmax vary on finer spatial and temporal scales. Accompanying the observed statewide warming from 1970 to 2006, regional cooling trends in Tmax are observed during winter and summer. These signatures of regional temperature change suggest that a collection of different forcing mechanisms or feedback processes must be present to produce these responses.  相似文献   

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period     

Claire Granier  Bertrand Bessagnet  Tami Bond  Ariela D��Angiola  Hugo Denier van der Gon  Gregory J. Frost  Angelika Heil  Johannes W. Kaiser  Stefan Kinne  Zbigniew Klimont  Silvia Kloster  Jean-Fran?ois Lamarque  Catherine Liousse  Toshihiko Masui  Frederik Meleux  Aude Mieville  Toshimasa Ohara  Jean-Christophe Raut  Keywan Riahi  Martin G. Schultz  Steven J. Smith  Allison Thompson  John van Aardenne  Guido R. van der Werf  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):163-190

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.  相似文献   

Exploring the orientations which characterise the likely public acceptance of low emission energy technologies     

Simone Carr-Cornish  Peta Ashworth  John Gardner  Stephen J. Fraser 《Climatic change》2011,107(3-4):549-565

There is a large body of research and development into the low emission energy technologies that has the potential to assist developed and developing countries transition to more sustainable energy systems. It has long been recognised that public perceptions can have a fundamental effect on the market for technology and this issue raises questions about the role society will play in developing a low emissions energy future. Understanding how the public will respond to the range of low emission energy technologies as part of a climate change mitigation package is therefore critical for researchers, policy makers and industry stakeholders. In the current research, we investigated the Australian public’s likely acceptance of a range of low emission energy technologies by assessing the diverse ‘orientations’ that have emerged in response to low emission energy technologies. In a survey of two Australian states we measured the support for, and knowledge of, a range of low emission energy technologies. Using self-organising maps, a relatively new approach for segmenting response profiles, we identified that at least four distinct ‘orientations’ have emerged toward the issue and are characterising the likely acceptance of these technologies: ‘Disengaged’, ‘Nuclear Oriented’, ‘Renewables Oriented’, and ‘Engaged’. The implications of these multiple public viewpoints are described for climate change mitigation policy and for future research into the social acceptance of alternative energy technologies.  相似文献   

Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ronald Prinn  Sergey Paltsev  Andrei Sokolov  Marcus Sarofim  John Reilly  Henry Jacoby 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):515-537

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.  相似文献   

Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys     

Keqi Zhang  John Dittmar  Michael Ross  Chris Bergh 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):129-153

Comparative analysis of the energy and carbon balances of wood vs. non-wood products is a complex issue. In this paper we discuss the definition of an appropriate functional unit and the establishment of effective system boundaries in terms of activity, time and space, with an emphasis on the comparison of buildings. The functional unit can be defined at the level of building component, complete building, or services provided by the built environment. Energy use or carbon emissions per unit of mass or volume of material is inadequate as a functional unit because equal masses or volumes of different materials do not fulfil the same function. Activity-based system boundaries include life cycle processes such as material production, product operation, and post-use material management. If the products compared are functionally equivalent, such that the impacts occurring during the operation phase are equal, we suggest that this phase may be dropped from the analysis allowing a focus on material flows. The use of wood co-products as biofuel can be analytically treated through system expansion, and compared to an alternative of providing the same energy service with fossil fuels. The assumed production of electricity used for material processing is another important energy-related issue, and we suggest that using marginal production data is more appropriate than average production. Temporal system boundaries include such aspects of the wood life cycle as the dynamics of forest growth including regeneration and saturation, the availability of residue biofuels at different times, and the duration of carbon storage in products. The establishment of spatial boundaries can be problematic, because using wood-based materials instead of non-wood materials requires more land area to capture solar energy and accumulate biomass. We discuss several possible approaches to meet this challenge, including the intensification of land use to increase the time rate of biomass production. Finally, we discuss issues related to scaling up an analysis of wood substitution from the micro-level to the macro-level of national, regional or global.  相似文献   

Aircraft Observations of Sea-Surface Turbulent Fluxes Near the California Coast   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

John Kalogiros  Qing Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,139(2):283-306

Aircraft turbulence data from the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network project were analyzed and compared to the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk parametrization of turbulent fluxes in an ocean area near the coast of California characterized by complex atmospheric flow. Turbulent fluxes measured at about 35 m above the sea surface using the eddy-correlation method were lower than bulk estimates under unstable and stable atmospheric stratification for all but light winds. Neutral turbulent transfer coefficients were used in this comparison because they remove the effects of mean atmospheric conditions and atmospheric stability. Spectral analysis suggested that kilometre-scale longitudinal rolls affect significantly turbulence measurements even near the sea surface, depending on sampling direction. Cross-wind sampling tended to capture all the available turbulent energy. Vertical soundings showed low boundary-layer depths and high flux divergence near the sea surface in the case of sensible heat flux but minimal flux divergence for the momentum flux. Cross-wind sampling and flux divergence were found to explain most of the observed discrepancies between the measured and bulk flux estimates. At low wind speeds the drag coefficient determined with eddy correlation and an inertial dissipation method after corrections were applied still showed high values compared to bulk estimates. This discrepancy correlated with the dominance of sea swell, which was a usually observed condition under low wind speeds. Under stable atmospheric conditions measured sensible heat fluxes, which usually have low values over the ocean, were possibly affected by measurement errors and deviated significantly from bulk estimates.  相似文献   

Data-Driven Evidential Belief Modeling of Mineral Potential Using Few Prospects and Evidence with Missing Values     

Emmanuel John M. Carranza 《Natural Resources Research》2015,24(3):291-304

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Assessing the Measurement Consistency Between the Jason-2/AMR and SARAL/AltiKa/DFMR Microwave Radiometers Using Simultaneous Nadir Observations     

Bin Zhang  Changyong Cao  John Lillibridge  Laury Miller 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):143-155

SARAL/AltiKa has a Dual Frequency Microwave Radiometer (DFMR), and Jason-2 has an Advanced Microwave Radiometer (AMR). Both microwave radiometer sensors include a 23.8 GHz primary water sensing channel. The measurement consistencies between DFMR and AMR are important for establishing a consistent altimetry data set between SARAL/AltiKa and Jason-2 in order to accurately assess sea level rise in a long-term time series. This study investigates the measurement consistency in the 23.8 GHz channel between DFMR and AMR at the Simultaneous Nadir Overpasses (SNO's) between the two satellites and also at coldest ocean brightness temperature locations. Preliminary results show that while both instruments show no significant trends over the one year since the launch of SARAL, a consistent relative bias of 2.88 K (DFMR higher than AMR) with a standard deviation of 0.98 K is observed. The relative bias at the lowest brightness temperature from the SNO method (-3.82 K) is consistent with that calculated from coldest ocean method (-3.74 K). The relative bias exhibits strong latitude (and scene temperature) dependency, changing from -3.82 K at high latitudes to -0.92 K near the equator. There also exists an asymmetry between the northern and southern hemisphere. The relative bias increases toward the lower end of brightness temperature.  相似文献   

Remote sensing-derived national land cover land use maps: a comparison for Malawi     

Barry Haack  John Kerkering 《国际地球制图》2015,30(3):270-292

Reliable land cover land use (LCLU) information, and change over time, is important for Green House Gas (GHG) reporting for climate change documentation. Four different organizations have independently created LCLU maps from 2010 satellite imagery for Malawi for GHG reporting. This analysis compares the procedures and results for those four activities. Four different classification methods were employed; traditional visual interpretation, segmentation and visual labelling, digital clustering with visual identification and supervised signature extraction with application of a decision rule followed by analyst editing. One effort did not report classification accuracy and the other three had very similar and excellent overall thematic accuracies ranging from 85 to 89%. However, despite these high thematic accuracies there were very significant differences in results. National percentages for forest ranged from 18.2 to 28.7% and cropland from 40.5 to 53.7%. These significant differences are concerns for both remote-sensing scientists and decision-makers in Malawi.  相似文献   

Using geodetic GPS receivers to measure vegetation water content   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wei Wan  Kristine M. Larson  Eric E. Small  Clara C. Chew  John J. Braun 《GPS Solutions》2015,19(2):237-248

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